[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 12-14 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 5,470 pfu observed at 11/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on 12-14 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced environment. Wind speeds averaged about 450 km/s early, then decreased to ~375 km/s before returning to 450 km/s late in the period. Total field averaged 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT while the phi angle was in a predominantly positive sector until near 12/0300 UTC when it switched to a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 12 Aug as a pair of fragmented, negative polarity CH HSSs remain in a weak, geoeffective position. A slow, gradual return to nominal levels is anticipated for 13-14 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 12 Aug due to weak influence from a pair of isolated, negative polarity CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for 13-14 Aug.

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