[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 30 Aug - 1 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30-31 Aug and increase to normal to high levels on 1 Sep in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was around 2 - 3 nT most of the period, until a slight agitation in the field around 30/1120 UTC increased Bt to 7 nT. The Bz component underwent only weak, brief southward deflections. Solar wind speed ranged from 350-415 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A generally slow regime is anticipated to continue on 30 Aug. However, an anticipated SSBC may disturb the IMF. An approaching CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to begin enhancing the IMF on 31 Aug. CIR arrival is expected the later half of 31 Aug, followed by HSS onset. Solar wind speed is anticipated to reach upwards of 650 km/s based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data and continue into 1 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Aug in response to the mildly disturbed solar wind environment. CIR arrival followed by CH HSS onset is expected to elicit unsettled to active conditions, with a few periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels being likely, late on 31 Aug. Combined effects of CIR passage and elevated solar wind speed from the CH HSS is likely to result in early periods of G1-G2(Minor-Moderate) storm conditions on 1 Sep.

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