[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 29-31 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 29-31 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Conditions were indicative of a waning, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field was between 2-3 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 2 nT. Wind speeds decreased from ~480 km/s to ambient-like, background conditions. Phi angle was in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: A slow regime is anticipated to continue on 29 Aug. An SSBC is expected as early as 30 Aug and may cause brief disturbances in the IMF. A CIR ahead of a recurrent, isolated, positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive the later half of 31 Aug. CIR influences are expected to lead to a strengthened IMF. Additionally, solar wind speed is likely to increase due to HSS onset late on 31 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 29 Aug. SSBC effects may lead to an isolated unsettled period on 30 Aug. Conditions on 31 Aug are expected to begin as quiet to unsettled. The later half of 31 Aug, responses are expected to escalate due to CIR and CH HSS influences; likely reaching G1 (Minor) storm levels later in the day.

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