[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 28-30 Aug due to the absence of sunspots and active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal levels in response to CIR arrival ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 28-30 Aug in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were elevated due to CH HSS influence. Wind speeds increased from ~440 km/s to ~500 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-7 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was predominately in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are anticipated to begin waning on 28 Aug, and the solar wind environment will likely return to a slow regime on 29 Aug. A predominantly ambient, background-like solar wind field is expected on 30 Aug. However, an SSBC is possible on 30 Aug, which could cause some agitation in the IMF.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet, with a chance of an isolated unsettled period, on 28 Aug. Quiet conditions are expected on 29 Aug. Proximity to the HCS or an SSBC could elicit an isolated period of unsettled conditions on 30 Aug.

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