[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. New Region 2748 (N14E27, Bxo/beta) appeared on the disk as a simple bipolar spot group and was absent of significant flare activity. A disappearing solar filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, at approximately 31/2230 UTC, lifting off of the visible disk near N45E05. The ejecta appeared to be reabsorbed and there was no indication of a CME signature in corresponding coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 01-03 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 12,200 pfu observed at 01/0445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on 01-03 Sep in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds increased from initial values near 700 km/s, reached a peak speed of 835 km/s at 01/0105 UTC, and ended the period slightly below 700 km/s. Total field strength peaked at 7 nT while the Bz component observed a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued influence from the positive polarity CH HSS on 01 Sep. Conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated on 02-03 Sep, but begin a gradual decrease by midday on 03 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 01 Sep due to persistent CH HSS influence. By 02 Sep, unsettled to active conditions are expected, with quiet to unsettled conditions returning by 03 Sep as the CH moves out of a geoeffective position.

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