[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Sep 02 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 2748 (N14, L=205, class/area Bxo/010 on 01 Sep) emerged on the disk, but remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 26 Aug, normal levels on 27-30 Aug, high levels on 31 Aug and very high levels on 01 Sep. Electron flux reached a maximum of 53,007 pfu at 01/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 Aug due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions persisted from late on 27 Aug through midday on 30 Aug. From midday on 30 Aug through 01 Sep, field activity increased to unsettled to G1 (minor) and G2 (moderate) levels as Earth came under the influence of a large, recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. 30 Aug saw a SSBC from a negative to a positive sector in advance of a CIR, all preceding the CH HSS. 31 Aug and 01 Sep observed active to G1 and G2 storm conditions. Wind speeds averaged about 750 km/s during this time frame with a peak of 835 km/s observed early on 01 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels on 02-13 Sep and again on 27-28 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) storm levels on 02 Sep and G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) storm levels on 27-28 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled levels are expected on 03, 07-08, 23, and 26 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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