[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 04-06 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak of 73,718 pfu observed at 03/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels on 04-06 Sep in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced, but weakening due to persistent positive polarity CH HSS effects. Wind speeds decreased from near 600 km/s to around 470 km/s by the end of the period. Total field was steady at 3-6 nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to exhibit a gradual, but continued decrease in solar wind speed on 04 Sep, with near background conditions anticipated for 05 Sep. On 6 Sep, a negative polarity CH HSS should begin moving into a geoeffective position, though impacts should be negligible due to the proximity of the autumnal equinox. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 4 Sep as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS wanes. A return to mostly quiet levels is expected on 05 Sep, with unsettled conditions possibly returning on 06 Sep as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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