[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 05-07 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak of 87,889 pfu observed at 04/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels on 05-07 Sep in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters initially indicated a weak, but waning connection with the positive polarity CH HSS rotating just beyond the west limb. Wind speeds decreased from near 600 km/s to around 430 km/s, total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 3 nT, and the phi angle was predominantly in a positive solar sector. Near midday, solar wind speeds began to increase, the Bz component saw a larger fluctuation to +/- 6 nT, total field reached 6 nT, and phi angle began oscillating into the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain slightly enhanced on 05-07 Sep as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at primarily unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated active periods, on 05 Sep. Unsettled levels are expected 06-07 Sep in response to a negative polarity CH HSS.

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