[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 16-18 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 5,476 pfu observed at 15/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 16-18 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels through the period. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 425-475 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable between positive and negative sectors through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels on 16 Sep. By 17 Sep, another enhancement is expected around midday as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. HSS effects are expected to persist into 18 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 16 Sep. Unsettled conditions are likely after midday on 17 Sep as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Unsettled levels are expected to persist into 18 Sep with a chance for isolated active periods.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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