[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. The filament eruption near central meridian, beginning at approximately 16/0900 UTC, appeared to be reabsorbed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 17-19 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed decreased over the period from approximately 455 km/s to near 385 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with deflections into a positive sector between 16/1448-2328 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are forecast to be slightly enhanced on 17 and 18 Sep, due to a negative polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to wane by 19 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period between 17/0000-0300 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the rest of the UTC day on 17 Sep. Unsettled conditions are likely on 18 Sep due to a negative polarity CH. Waning CH influence should subside by 19 Sep, with a return to mostly quiet conditions.

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