[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Analysis of the 20 degree filament eruption at 19/2200 UTC indicated the possibility of a glancing blow from the narrow, slow-moving CME early on 25 Sep. Most of the ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line, but the periphery of the CME may have embedded with the HSS that is expected to be geoeffective later this week.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 22-24 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance of high levels on 24 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed was steady at about 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced early to midday on 23 Sep with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Activity is expected to persist into 24 Sep. Solar wind speeds are expected to be in the 450-550 km/s range based on STEREO A MAG & PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 22 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23-24 Sep with isolated active periods possible both days due to CH HSS effects.

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