[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Sep 23 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk. An approximately 20 degree filament erupted near S35W02 around 19/2200 UTC which produced a narrow, slow-moving CME signature near the Sun-Earth line. Modeling of the event suggested most of the ejecta was oriented south and eastward of Earth's orbit; however, Earth may still observe weak influence from the periphery of the CME.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 16-21 Sep and dropped to just normal levels through 22 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active conditions. Elevated wind speeds from a waning positive polarity CH HSS produced isolated active conditions on 16 Sep. Variable phi angle on 17 Sep suggested influence from a SSBC, cause a period of isolated active conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels on 18 Sep decreased to just quiet levels on 19-20 Sep. A brief period of southward Bz produced a single period of unsettled on 21 Sep. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September - 19 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 28 Sep - 12 Oct and 14 Oct; moderate levels are expected on 24-27 Sep, 13 Oct, and 15-18 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal levels. All enhancements in electron flux are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 levels are expected on 28 Sep followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic levels on 29 Sep. Active conditions are expected on 23-25 Sep, 30 Sep and 06 Oct. Unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep, 01-03 Oct, 10 Oct and 12-15 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

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