[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 23-25 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 23 Sep and normal to moderate levels on 24-25 Sep due to high speed wind effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed gradually declined through the period from about 350 km/s to near 300 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component was mostly northward to 5 nT. Phi angle switched from a mostly positive (away) solar sector to a negative (towards) sector at 22/1452 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced about mid-day on 23 Sep with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Activity is expected to persist into 24 Sep. Solar wind speeds are expected to be in the 450-550 km/s range based on STEREO A MAG & PLASTIC data. Early on 25 Sep, a possible glancing blow from the 19/2200 UTC CME could further enhance total field parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23-24 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. A possible glancing blow from the 19 Sep CME may cause continued quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods into 25 Sep.

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