[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 26-28 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26-27 Sep and increase to high levels on 28 Sep due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near background levels. Solar wind speed decreased from initial values near 490 km/s to just under 400 km/s by periods end. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -4 nT, and the phi angle remained in a mostly negative orientation.

Forecast: Near background conditions are expected to continue on 26 Sep and into the first half of 27 Sep. A CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive around mid-day on 27 Sep, with enhancements in the solar wind parameters likely. CH HSS effects are expected to increase on 28 Sep as CH65 moves into a more geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled conditions likely on 26 Sep. Around mid-day on 27 Sep, a CIR is expected to arrive, increasing activity to unsettled to active levels. Late day periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 27 Sep, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm levels associated with the onset of CH HSS effects. Periods of G2 storm levels are likely on 28 Sep as CH HSS influences persist.

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