[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a benign visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 27-29 Sep due to lack of sunspot groups or notable active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase late on 27 Sep due to CH HSS influences, likely reaching moderate to high levels. The flux is expected to continue rising and reach high to very high levels on 28-29 Sep. Meanwhile, the 10 MeV proton flux is forecast to remain at background all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime for most of the period. Total field strength was primarily 2 to 4 nT, and the Bz component underwent negligible deviations. Solar wind speed averaged between 350 to 375 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative. At approximately 27/0930 UTC, a SSBC was observed. Simultaneously, total field strength began to rise, Bz saw a southward deflection to -5 nT, and density began to rise. By 27/1100 UTC, total field strength had reached nearly 15 nT, the Bz component had a southward deflection to -7 nT, and wind speeds increased from 370 km/s to near 450 km/s. These enhancements are likely attributed to the arrival of the anticipated CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to see further enhancements throughout the day on 27 Sep as the CIR moves through, ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS. Increasing solar wind speed is anticipated to approach speeds of 650 km/s as the day progresses, and may likely reach near 700 km/s by 28 Sep. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist into 29 Sep as CH HSS influence continues.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 27 Sep with the CIR arrival, followed by CH HSS onset. CH HSS effects are anticipated to intensify, likely resulting in periods of G1 and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 28 Sep, and an early isolated period of G1 storm conditions on 29 Sep.

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