[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2749 (S09E56, Axx/alpha) remained stable and unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 02-04 Oct due to the low flare probability of Region 2749.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux reached of 2,030 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 02-04 Oct due to continuing effects of the previously geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were stable for most of the period. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, the Bz component was at +/-4 nT, solar wind speed averaged 475 km/s to 500 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to return to background levels as CH HSS influences wane on 02 Oct. An extension of the south polar, negative polarity CH HSS may become weakly geoeffective on 03 Oct, with weak enhancements possible. Any enhancements are likely to begin dissipating on 04 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 02 Oct. Isolated active levels are likely on 03 Oct, due to possible effects of the negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04 Oct, due to waning CH HSS influences.

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