[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2749 (S09, Lo=130) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 03-05 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 3,910 pfu at 02/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over 03-05 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated a return to nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from an elevated 450-525 km/s at the beginning of the period to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters may experience weak enhancements from the influence from a negative polarity CH HSS over 03-04 Oct. Nominal conditions are expected to return by 05 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels but was predominantly quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels during the potential onset influence from a negative polarity CH HSS on 03-04 Oct. Quiet conditions are expected on 05 Oct under an ambient solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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