[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 04-06 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 5,990 pfu at 03/2010 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over 04-06 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the passage of a SSBC. Phi angle transitioned from the positive to the negative sector after 04/0515 UTC. Around the same time, total magnetic field strength increased to brief peak of 10 nT at 04/0528 UTC. Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at the same time. Solar wind speeds remained relatively slow over the period, fluctuating around 370-425 km/s over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters may experience weak enhancements from the influence from a negative polarity CH HSS on 04-05 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet but reached unsettled in response to passage of a SSBC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 04-05 Oct due to possible influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 06 Oct.

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