[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 11-13 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 12 Oct, increasing to high levels on 13 Oct as a negative polarity CH moves into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged between 450-475 km/s, but did briefly reach speeds around 515-520 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Near-background conditions are expected over the next three days, with isolated enhancements possible as a result of HCS influence and the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 11-12 Oct. By 13 Oct, a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to move into a geoeffective position, increasing activity to unsettled with isolated active periods possible.

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