[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless, and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 10-12 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 12 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced this period, likely due to close proximity of the HCS and a SSBC. Total field values ranged from 6 to 12 nT, and the Bz component underwent a sustained, southward deflection of up to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds also increased during the later half of the period, averaging around 470 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative, but became positive after 09/2300 UTC while still taking brief excursions into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Near-background conditions are expected over the next 3 days with isolated enhancements possible as a result of HCS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with isolated active periods occurring late in the period.

Forecast: Isolated periods of unsettled and active levels are possible with HCS influence 10 OCT. However, mostly quiet conditions are expected 10-12 OCT.

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