[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period. No active regions with sunspots were observed and there were no new Earth-directed CMEs detected in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 28-30 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 36,200 pfu observed at 27/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 28-30 Oct, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speed values slowly decreased from around 600 km/s early in the period to just below 500 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values remained near 5 nT and Bz briefly deflected southward at around -5 nT a multiple points throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speed values are expected to steadily decrease over the remainder of 28 Oct through midday on 29 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. The 26 Oct CME is anticipated to arrive late on 29 Oct-early on 30 Oct and is expected to cause an additional enhancement in the near-Earth solar wind environment which is expected to persist through the remainder of 30 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled under waning CH HSS influence this period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of 28 Oct. Isolated active conditions are expected on 29-30 Oct due to a combination of waning CH HSS influence and the likely arrival of the 26 Oct CME.

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