[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period. No sunspots were observed and no new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 29-31 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels this period. with a peak flux of 58,545 pfu observed at 28/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with very high levels likely, on 29-31 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the diminishing effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed values steadily decreased from near 500 km/s early in the period to ~400 km/s by periods end. Total field strength values were steady near 4 nT, and Bz remained mostly southward throughout the period. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to return to mostly nominal levels on 29 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. Weak enhancements are expected on 30-31 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 29 Oct as CH HSS influence continues to wane. Late on 30 Oct, isolated active periods are possible as the negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist into 31 Oct.

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