[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An active region at approximately S23E80 appeared to develop potential spots late in the period, however, we await confirmatory observatory reports and adequate existence duration before assigning the next available NOAA/SWPC region number. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 12-14 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased from moderate to normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 12-13 Nov and increase to high levels by 14 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to exhibit an enhanced IMF in a slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength was 9 to 13 nT; however the Bz component was predominantly northward. Solar wind speed was primarily 350-375 km/s and the phi angle was negative.

Forecast: The enhancement in the total IMF strength is not anticipated to continue beyond 12 Nov. A return to an ambient, background-like IMF state is expected on 13-14 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an active period still possible due to the enhanced IMF state on 12 Nov. Predominantly quiet conditions are anticipated 13-14 Nov as the enhanced IMF weakens and slow solar wind speeds continue.

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