[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low, and no sunspots were on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 16-18 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on 16-18 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained mostly nominal over the course of the period. Total field values averaged between 1 and 4 nT, with a brief increase to 7 nT at 15/1927 UTC due to a short-lived SSBC. The Bz component also underwent a southward deflection of -5 nT just before the aforementioned slight, strengthening of total field, but was otherwise benign. Solar wind speeds averaged between 350-390 km/s. The Phi angle was predominantly in a positive solar sector, but did undertake occasional excursions into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to transition into a negative polarity CH HSS by periods end on 16 Nov. Enhancements will likely wane over 17 Nov and return to nominal by 18 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach isolated active conditions on 16 Nov in response to anticipated CH HSS influence. Unsettled conditions on 17 Nov are likely to transition to mostly quiet on 18 Nov as influence from the CH HSS wanes.

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