[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low, and no sunspots were on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 17-19 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested onset of a CIR ahead of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 10 nT at 16/1758 UTC. The Bz component was mostly positive but briefly reached as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds approached 450 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels on 17 Nov. Nominal conditions are likely to return over 18 Nov. An additional enhancement is likely on 19 Nov as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach isolated unsettled conditions on 17 Nov. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 18 Nov as CH HSS influence wanes. 19 Nov may see additional periods of unsettled conditions in response to an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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