[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low, and no sunspots were on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 18-20 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the transition of a weak negative polarity CH HSS to nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT and Bz was at benign values. Solar wind speeds reached a brief maximum of 425 km/s early, before declining to near 375 km/s for most of the period. Phi was predominately oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal conditions over 18 Nov. An additional enhancement is likely on 19 Nov and into 20 Nov as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to influence the near-Earth space environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet conditions on 18 Nov. 19 Nov may see additional periods of unsettled conditions in response to an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Further enhancements to active levels are likely on 20 Nov due to the anticipated onset of an additional, more pronounced, positive polarity CH HSS.

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