[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 19-21 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels 19-20 Nov and increase to high levels on 21 Nov due to elevated solar wind speeds from a CH HSS. The greater 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was primarily 2 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 350-375 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue on 19 Nov, however the IMF may become disturbed and slightly enhanced due to an anticipated SSBC. An approaching CIR is expected to further enhance and disturb the IMF on 20 Nov. CIR arrival could be as early as late 20 Nov, followed by onset of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS by 21 Nov. Analysis of SDO/AIA imagery reveal this CH has shrunk substantially from previous rotations. Additionally, observations from STEREO-A MAG and PLASTIC data suggest a weaker CIR than previous rotations, and perhaps only a modest solar wind speed increase to around 500 km/s - although STEREO data has been unavailable since 16 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 19 Nov. The anticipated IMF enhancement and disturbance on 20 Nov is likely to cause active conditions. CIR arrival and CH HSS onset are likely to lead to an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 21 Nov.

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