[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Nov 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Nov 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and sunspots remained absent from the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 21-23 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 21 Nov and increase, reaching high levels on 22-23 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of a CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from nominal levels up to approximately 470 km/s. Total field strength reached a maximum of 10 nT while the Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi underwent to a switch from negative to a positive orientation near 20/1900 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain enhanced through 22 Nov. The CH HSS effects are expected to begin to wane on 23 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active, with a likely period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming, on 21 Nov due to CH HSS influences. Continuing CH HSS influences are expected to cause quiet to active conditions on 22 Nov. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 Nov as CH HSS effects wane.

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