[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Apr 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Apr 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 21-23 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: After the previous periods activity, solar wind parameters slowly returned to a more nominal state. Winds speeds ranged between 332-375 km/s and total field decayed from 16 to 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly north to 10 nT but turned south to -7 nT after about 21/0845 UTC. Phi angle switch from a steady positive to a steady negative orientation at about 20/2130 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 21 Apr as a negative polarity, southern crown CH extension moves into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly in the 400-500 km/s ranged based on recurrent values. By 22 Apr, additional weak enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected as conditions shift from the negative polarity CH HSS to an equatorial positive polarity CH HSS. The weak enhancements are expected to last into 23 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with G1 (minor) storm levels observed early due to CME enhancements.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 21 Apr as HSS influence begins. By late on 22 Apr, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing quiet to unsettled conditions.

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