[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 May 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 May 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels today with an impulsive M1 flare observed at 29/0724 UTC from a region just beyond the NE limb near N35. This region is also responsible for a C9 flare at 29/1046 UTC and numerous B-class flare activity.

EIT waves have been observed from this region in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery at 27/1825, 28/1025, and 29/0725 UTC along with associated coronal mass ejections off the east limb in SOHO C2 imagery at 27/1848, 28/1100, and 29/0800 UTC. Given its location beyond the limb, it is not expected to have any Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low levels with a slight chance for further M-class flare activity. The region just beyond the NE limb is due to rotate onto the visible disk in the next 24 hours, so magnetic complexity has yet to be determined.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 29-31 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 272-306 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Weak enhancements to the solar wind parameters are possible over 29-31 May due to negative CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over 29-31 May due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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