[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 May 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 May 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels over the period with an isolated C1 flare observed at 29/1422 UTC from a yet unnumbered region on the NE limb that is just now rotating into view near N33. No spots were visible as of the time of this report due to its proximity to the limb.

Other activity included a filament eruption off the SE quadrant observed in H-alpha imagery beginning at 30/0003 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the E limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 30/0125 UTC. Due to its proximity to the E limb, it is unlikely to be geoeffective. However, further analysis is pending as imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low levels with a slight chance for further M-class flare activity. More information will be determined about the magnetic complexity of the region as it rotates further onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 30 May - 01 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: An enhancement in solar wind parameters was observed after 29/1900 UTC. Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 295 km/s to near 375 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 14 nT at 30/0443 UTC. Prolonged periods of southward Bz began after 30/0412 UTC and reached a maximum of -13 nT. A SSBC was observed at 30/0429 UTC as the phi angle switched to a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be enhanced through 31 May as geomagnetic activity persists. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected by 01 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 31 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet levels are expected on 01 Jun.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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