[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jul 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jul 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2766 (N04, L=125) remained an area of plage. No other areas with spots were observed on the visible disk.

WSA-Enlil model runs performed on the filament eruption that occurred at 08/2330 UTC near N40W72 indicated no Earth-directed component.

An additional filament eruption near S29W18, observed at 08/2045 UTC in GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery, was possibly the source region for a very slow-moving, faint CME off the SW quadrant. The CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0724 UTC. Initial WSA-Enlil model output suggested a possible, weak glancing blow midday to late 14 Jul. However, continued analysis of this slow-moving event is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 10-12 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 10-12 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed meandered between 302-340 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels on 10-11 Jul. Weak influences from a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance the geomagnetic field on 12 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 10-11 Jul. CH HSS effects are expected to cause unsettled conditions on 12 Jul.

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