[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 14-16 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through about 13/1500 UTC. Solar wind speeds averaged about 300 km/s through 13/1500 UTC. Thereafter, and through periods end, a steady increase was observed with a maximum approaching 400 km/s observed at about 14/0658 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive solar sector through about 13/2030 UTC. Thereafter, phi became highly variable. Total field ranged from 3-10 nT, while the Bz component was mostly southward through the period reaching a maximum deflection of -9 nT at about 14/0400 UTC.

Forecast: Enhancements are expected through early on 15 Jul due to weak CME effects. A return to a more nominal environment is anticipated through 16 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to transient effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 14 Jul, with unsettled intervals early on 15 Jul, due to effects from the 8 Jul CME. Quiet conditions are expected to return for 16 Jul.

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