[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2770 (N21E69, Cso/beta) continued to rotate further onto the visible disk, but still had a degree of uncertainty with the magnetic classification due to foreshortening. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 04-06 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on 04-06 Aug due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed averaged near 650 km/s and reached a peak over 750 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) solar sector, with isolated oscillations into the negative sector towards the end of the period.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue on 04-05 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist. A gradual return to an ambient-like, background environment is anticipated for 06 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are anticipated for 04-05 Aug as CH HSS influence persists. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 06 Aug.

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