[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Very low solar activity continued and Region 2770 (N23W30, Axx/alpha) decayed further. Despite the dissipation, Region 2770 produced a weak B2-level X-ray enhancement at 11/1659 UTC that was observed as an optical subflare by USAF solar observatories. Analysis of GOES-16/SUVI and STEREO/EUVI imagery revealed a possible active region just beyond the solar disks SE limb that may rotate into Earth-view in another day. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 12-14 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels for the seventh consecutive day and peaked at 2,410 pfu at 11/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 12-14 Aug, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of an ambient-background, slow regime. Total IMF strength was mostly less than 5 nT and Bz variations were negligible. Solar wind speed averaged around 300 km/s and the phi angle was positive.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 12-14 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Quiet conditions dominated the geomagnetic state.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected 12-14 Aug as Earth continues under the influence of an ambient, slow solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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