[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2772 (N18W43, Bxo/beta) developed new trailing spots, but remained inactive only producing B-level enhancements in the X-ray flux. No new Earth directed CMEs were visible in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 19-21 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-21 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect mostly background conditions. Total field values ranged from 3-8 nT, the Bz component underwent a brief southward deflection of -7 nT, and wind speeds increased slightly to ~345 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector while taking brief excursions into a negative orientation.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue. Weak influences from a small, isolated negative polarity CH HSS may lead to a subtle solar wind speed increase late on 19 Aug. Additional enhancements in the solar wind environment early to mid-day on 20 Aug are anticipated with the likely arrival of the 16 Aug CME which will likely continue through 21 Aug as CH HSS/CME effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated to continue over the course of 19 Aug with the arrival of a CH HSS. Glancing blow CME effects are likely to result in possible active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 20 Aug. Unsettled levels are expected on 21 Aug as CME/CH HSS effects linger.

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