[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A new spot group formed late in the period near N18W30, was inactive, and remains unnumbered at this time.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 18-20 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels 18-20 Aug; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continues at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime and likely proximity to the HCS. Total IMF strength was variable at primarily 2 to 7 nT. The Bz component underwent a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT, but was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds ranged from under 300 km/s to near 330 km/s. The phi angle was variable between sectors.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue, but with a mildly disturbed IMF due to likely HCS proximity on 18 Aug. Weak influences from a small, isolated negative polarity CH HSS may lead to a minor solar wind speed increase later on 18 Aug into 19 Aug. Anticipated arrival of a glancing blow from the 16 Aug CME early to mid-day on 20 Aug is expected to enhance the total IMF strength and cause a modest increase in solar wind speed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected on 18 Aug. Minor CH HSS influences may lead to unsettled conditions on 19 Aug. Glancing blow CME effects are likely to result in unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20 Aug.

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