[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Sep 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2773 (N27, L=088) remained an area of plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for low levels, on 27-29 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,802 pfu observed at 26/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 27-29 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected continue at background levels on 27-29 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 494-581 km/s. Total field peaked at 6 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be enhanced through 28 Sep under the first of two polar connected, positive polarity CH HSSs. By late on 28 Sep to early on 29 Sep, a second larger CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective further enhancing the solar wind. Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are likely based on recurrent solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 27-28 Sep due to persistent CH HSS activity. By late on 28 Sep to early on 29 Sep another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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