[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Oct 19 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Oct 19 0120 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 October 2020

Solar activity was low. Region 2774 (S25, L=308, class/area Axx/010 on 09 Oct) was responsible for the largest event of the period, a C3 flare at 16/1511 UTC. Region 2774 also produced a C1 flare at 16/1257 UTC. Associated CMEs were observed from both events, however, due to the location of the source region around the southwest limb, neither contained a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet throughout the period, under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 October - 14 November 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-31 Oct and 01 Nov due to influence from recurrent CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected during the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22-25 Oct, with active levels likely on 21, 26 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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