[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with a few subfaint, B-class x-ray events observed from Region 2776 (S13E04, Cso/beta). Region 2776 was stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 19-21 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-20 Oct, increasing to moderate to high levels on 21 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field measurements were at or below 7 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT, and wind speed meandered between 300-375 km/s. Phi angle was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels over 19 Oct and most of 20 Oct. Late on 20 Oct through 21 Oct, wind parameters are expected to become enhanced as an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS rotates into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 19-20 Oct. Isolated unsettled periods are possible late on 20 Oct, increasing to unsettled to active levels on 21 Oct, due to influence from an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

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