[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Nov 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Nov 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity from new Region 2785 (S23E66, Hsx/alpha) and new Region 2786 (S16E74, Hsx/alpha). Region 2783 (S22W00, Cso/beta) developed trailer spots and produced some B-class activity. Region 2784 (N32E08, Bxo/beta) was quiet and stable. A Tenflare of 160 sfu was observed at 22/1643 UTC.

A slow-moving CME signature, first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery after 21/2236 UTC, may be associated with an area of dimming observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 21/1600-1800 UTC near Region 2783. Initial model output suggested no Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing. No other CME activity was observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares, on 23-25 Nov due to potential flare activity from Regions 2785 and 2786.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on 23-25 Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. During the period, solar wind speed ranged between about 550-650 km/s, total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +7/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced over the next three days as HSS effects persist. Solar wind speed is expected to diminish slightly on 24 Nov before transitioning into another positive polarity CH HSS late on 25 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels for the remainder of 23 Nov followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Nov and unsettled to active levels on 25 Nov due to CH HSS activity.

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