[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Nov 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Nov 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2786 (S15E53, Cko/beta) developed a few trailer spots and produced a C3 flare at 25/0402 UTC. Region 2785 (S20E38, Hsx/alpha) also began to exhibit signs of decay and was quiet. Region 2783 (S20W25, Cso/beta) began to decay and lost many of its trailer and intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-flares likely on 25-27 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the steady return to a near background solar wind regime. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from just under 500 to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. Total field averaged near 3 nT, and the Bz component was negligible. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue near background levels on 25 Nov. By 26 Nov, weak enhancements from the positive polarity extensions from the north polar crown are expected to move into a geoeffective position. These enhancements are expected to begin tapering off late on 27 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible, throughout the forecast period (25-27 Nov).

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