[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2795 (S18, L=321) decayed to plage and was inactive of significant flare activity.

Several filaments disappeared with locations between S30 and S50 near center disk over the last couple of days. From those events there were two CME signatures that were observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery and modeled: a signature beginning in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 01/2312 UTC and later a signature beginning in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 02/1136 UTC. Analysis and modeling is still ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 03-05 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 03-05 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to undergo a weak enhancement from a positive polarity CH HSS on 03 Jan. Nominal conditions are again expected for 04 Jan. Another weak enhancement from a SSBC is possible on 05 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 Jan due to weak coronal hole influence. Quiet conditions are expected over 04 Jan followed by the possibility for isolated periods of unsettled conditions on 05 Jan due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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