[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Jan 04 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Jan 04 0144 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December - 03 January 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Regions 2794 (S16, L=346, class/area=Hsx/180 on 28 Dec) and 2795 (S19, L=317, class/area=Cao/beta on 29 Dec) produced only B-class flare activity throughout the week.

Multiple filament eruptions were observed between S30-50, near center disk, on 01-02 Jan. Two CME signatures with likely earth-directed components were deteced in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2312 UTC and 02/1136 UTC. CME analysis and model outputs suggests arrival of these CMEs late on 05 Jan/early on 06 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 29-30 Dec, and quiet throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 January - 30 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 09-12 and 20-22 Jan. Normal and normal-to-moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 05 Jan, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 06 Jan, due to the anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs from 01-02 Jan. Active conditions are expected on 17-20 Jan due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet-to-unsettled conditions are exected to prevail throughout the outlook period.

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