[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 04 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. The CMEs that first left the Sun on 01 and 02 Jan were analyzed and modeled. The first, slow-moving CME was overtaken by the faster second CME on 02 Jan. The model runs suggested a reasonable 06 Jan for the onset of CME effects at Earth; however, due to two interacting transients along the Sun-Earth line there is an introduction of additional uncertainty with the arrival timing. Observed onset has the potential to deviate from the modeling of the event more than usual.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 04-06 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 04-06 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters, measured at L1, are likely to undergo enhancements from a SSBC followed by coronal hole influence on 05 Jan. Combined influence from a negative polarity coronal hole and the 02 Jan CME are likely on 06 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels for the remainder of 04 Jan. An increase to active levels is possible on 05 Jan due to the onset of an anticipated SSBC followed by coronal hole influence late in the day. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 06 Jan due to the forecasted arrival of the 02 Jan CME combined with ongoing coronal hole influence.

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