[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. The CMEs that left the Sun on 01 and 02 Jan were analyzed and modeled. The first, slow-moving CME was overtaken by the faster second CME on 02 Jan. Model runs suggest arrival on 06 Jan; however, confidence is somewhat low in timing due to the anticipated interactions between the two CMEs coupled with a weak CH HSS due to arrive late on 05 Jan.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 05-07 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 05-07 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime and enhanced IMF. Total field strength gradually increased and reached 15 nT at 05/1142 UTC, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -14 nT at 05/1152 UTC Solar wind speed averaged mainly between 300-375 km/s. The phi angle was in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to undergo additional enhancements from an anticipated SSBC followed by weak coronal hole influence on 05 Jan. Combined influence from a negative polarity coronal hole and the 02 Jan CME are likely on 06 Jan. Parameters will likely remain elevated through 07 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are possible on 05 Jan due to anticipated SSBC effects followed by coronal hole influences late in the day. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely 06 Jan due to the forecast arrival of the 02 Jan CME combined with ongoing coronal hole effects. Unsettled, with a chance for early, isolated active periods, are expected 07 Jan.

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