[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk remained spotless. A CME was first clearly observed at 06/0436 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the NW limb. Initial analysis has not identified a clear source of this CME from the Earth-facing disk. Analysis continues however as additional imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 06-08 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels, but not long enough to warrant an alert. The peak flux observed was 1,174 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 06-07 Jan and likely reaching moderate to high levels 08 Jan in response to combined influences from a CH HSS and CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an SSBC, CIR, and CH HSS onset. Total field reached 18 nT and the Bz component underwent a brief, southward deviation of -15 nT. Solar wind speed reached near 631 km/s at 06/0703 UTC and the phi angle oriented into a negative solar sector at approximately 05/1257 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain elevated the remainder of 06 Jan due to CH HSS effects and anticipated CME influences. Parameters are expected to gradually return to near background-like levels over the course of 07 Jan and remain there on 08 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are anticipated to continue 06 Jan due to CH HSS influences, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions still likely due to anticipated CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance of early, isolated active periods, are expected 07 Jan as combined CH HSS and CME effects continue, but wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 08 Jan.

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