[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk remained spotless. The CME first clearly observed at 06/0436 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery was analyzed and modeled. Results indicated this CME is not likely to be Earth-directed. However, if the flanking edge of the CME is partially geoeffective, any impacts are expected to be negligible.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 07-09 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 07 Jan and likely reaching moderate to high levels 08-09 Jan in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a waning CH HSS and possible weak CME influences. Total IMF strength decreased from 6 nT down to 1-3 nT by the reporting periods end. The Bz component underwent only weak deviations and the phi angle was predominantly negative until about 07/0457 UTC, when it became primarily positive. Solar wind speed decreased from a brief peak of 626 km/s at 06/1300 UTC down to speeds near 475 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue a gradual decline to an ambient, background-like state over the course of 07 Jan and remain there for 08-09 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Primarily quiet, with isolated occasions of unsettled conditions, are anticipated for 07 Jan as CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 08-09 Jan.

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