[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-14 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of a slow moving transient at approximately 11/0823 UTC. At this time density, temperature, and wind speed increased. As the day progressed, total field strength saw an increase to 20 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -18 nT. Wind speeds peaked near 475 km/s. By the start of 12 Jan the IMF had settled although wind speeds remained elevated.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced early on 12 Jan as effects from the slow moving transient continues and combines with the onset of the positive polarity CH HSS. Nominal conditions are expected to return on 13-14 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels following the arrival of the slow moving transient from 6 Jan and likely onset of the positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated active period, early on 12 Jan as the influence from the transient persists. Quiet conditions are expected to return late on 12 Jan and continue into 13-14 Jan.

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