[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels following a C1 flare from Region 2797 (S17E55, Cao/beta) at 19/1754 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 20-22 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-21 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 22 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The IMF was elevated above normal, background readings. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz underwent a few southward deviations, none of which were substantial. Wind speed was fairly steady around 325 km/s. Phi was negative most of the period but began to transition to positive late in the period.

Forecast: Enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated through 22 Jan as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position on 20 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period starting at 09 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storm period through 21 Jan due to CH HSS influence. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by 22 Jan as the CH HSS influence wanes.

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